Two bets, one game
Craps is a game of chance with a built-in house edge. No strategy, system or timing changes that in the player’s favor over time, most players lose money over time, and nobody should gamble money they cannot afford to lose. The two basic line bets are the cheapest wagers on the layout, but cheap is not the same as free.
The Pass Line bets that the shooter will “pass,” and the Don’t Pass bets that the shooter will not. They are close to mirror images of each other, with one small difference that keeps the house ahead on both sides.
How the Pass Line works
On the come-out roll, the Pass Line wins with a 7 or 11 and loses with a 2, 3 or 12. Any other total becomes the point, and the bet wins if the point repeats before a 7.
Counting the 36 equally likely dice combinations: 8 win immediately, 4 lose immediately and 24 set a point. The chance of the point repeating before a 7 depends on the point: 1 in 3 for 4 or 10, 2 in 5 for 5 or 9, and 5 in 11 for 6 or 8. Putting it all together, the Pass Line wins 244 times in 495 on average and loses 251 times, which is about 49.3% wins against 50.7% losses.
The gap of 7 in 495 gives a house edge of about 1.41%. Hypothetical example: for every $100 wagered on resolved Pass Line bets, the expected loss is about $1.41.
How Don’t Pass works
The Don’t Pass bet wins on a come-out 2 or 3 and loses on a 7 or 11. A come-out 12 is typically barred, meaning the bet is a push and nothing is won or lost. If a point is set, Don’t Pass wins when a 7 arrives before the point and loses if the point repeats first.
The rule about the 12 is the whole difference. Without it, Don’t Pass would be a slight advantage for the player, which no casino would offer. By returning the bet on one combination in 36, the casino keeps its edge, now about 1.36% of the amount wagered. Some tables bar the 2 instead of the 12, which changes the combination but not the logic. Rules vary, so it is worth reading the table layout.
Side by side
| Pass Line | Don’t Pass | |
|---|---|---|
| Wins on come-out | 7, 11 (8 in 36) | 2, 3 (3 in 36) |
| Loses on come-out | 2, 3, 12 (4 in 36) | 7, 11 (8 in 36) |
| Push on come-out | none | 12 (1 in 36) |
| After a point | Wins if point repeats before 7 | Wins if 7 comes before the point |
| Chance to win on any bet | about 49.3% | about 47.9% |
| House edge | about 1.41% | about 1.36% |
The Don’t Pass bet wins less often in total than the Pass Line, because it gives up the heavy 7 and 11 on the come-out. After a point is set, though, it is the favorite on each roll, since a 7 is more likely than any single point. It wins more often when it is “alive,” and loses more often at the start.
Why neither beats the house
A common intuition says that betting against the shooter must be smarter, since a 7 is the most common total. The numbers show why that fails to produce an advantage. The Don’t Pass bet pays even money, so a win returns the same amount that was risked. Even-money bets are not as even as the label suggests. The player wins slightly less than half the time on both bets, and the 12 rule is exactly what moves Don’t Pass from a small player edge to a small house edge.
A difference of 0.05 percentage points between 1.41% and 1.36% is tiny. Hypothetical example: on $10,000 of total wagers, the expected cost is about $141 on the Pass Line and about $136 on Don’t Pass. Actual results in a session can be far from either figure, as short-term fluctuation is much larger than the edge. And because each roll is independent, there is no “overdue” outcome on either side.
Choosing between them
The choice is about preference, not advantage:
- The Pass Line goes with the shooter, so most of the table is cheering together. Some players enjoy that shared mood, while others find the Don’t Pass side unpopular socially, since it wins when most players lose.
- Don’t Pass is slightly cheaper in percentage terms, but wins more slowly and more rarely at the start.
- Either bet can be backed with an odds bet, which carries no edge of its own. Odds do not remove the edge on the original bet, but they lower the cost as a share of total money wagered.
The real difference at the table comes from how much is bet and how often. The speed of play and the number of bets at once matter more to the total cost per hour than the small gap between the two line bets.
A cautious takeaway
Both line bets are among the lowest-cost wagers in a casino, and both still carry an edge. Neither can be turned into a reliable way to win money. Anyone who plays should set a budget of truly spare money in advance, expect uncertain results, and stop when the limit is reached. A local support service can help anyone who feels their gambling is becoming a problem.