Casino games are games of chance with a built-in house edge. No strategy, system or timing changes the odds in the player’s favor over time, and most players lose money over the long run. Nobody should gamble money they cannot afford to lose. The bets below are among the cheapest in the casino, and they still cost money on average.
What “even money” means
An even-money bet pays one unit for every unit wagered. Stake 10, and a win returns your 10 plus 10 more. Many wagers are described this way: red or black and odd or even in roulette, the player or banker side in baccarat (with a twist), the pass line in craps, and an ordinary winning hand in blackjack.
The name suggests a fair coin flip. A genuinely fair even-money bet would win exactly half the time. Nearly all casino even-money bets win a little less than half the time, and that gap is the entire house edge.
Roulette: the clearest example
On a single-zero wheel there are 37 pockets: numbers 1 to 36 plus one zero. A bet on red wins on 18 of them. It loses on the other 19, because the zero is neither red nor black.
Per unit staked, the expected value is:
- (18 / 37) × (+1) + (19 / 37) × (−1) = −1/37
That is about −2.70 percent. Over many bets of one unit, the player is expected to lose roughly 2.7 percent of the total wagered. The payout is one to one; the odds are 18 wins to 19 losses.
On a double-zero wheel there are 38 pockets and the same 18 winning pockets, so the loss column grows to 20:
- (18 / 38) − (20 / 38) = −2/38, about −5.26 percent
The extra pocket roughly doubles the edge, which is the subject of the comparison between single-zero and double-zero wheels. A related rule, la partage, returns half of an even-money stake when the ball lands on zero. Then the expected value on a single-zero wheel becomes (18/37) − (18/37) − (0.5/37) = −0.5/37, about −1.35 percent. The bet still costs money; it simply costs less.
A useful way to see this: a bet only breaks even if its win probability equals the break-even probability implied by its payout. For one to one, that is 50 percent. A bet that wins 18 times in 37 is just under 49 percent. The difference between 48.65 and 50 is small to the eye and decisive over thousands of bets.
Blackjack: where “even money” hides a lot
A standard winning hand in blackjack pays one to one, yet you do not win half your hands. You also face ties, which are pushed, and you act before the dealer, so your busts are counted before the dealer has to draw. Following basic strategy reduces the edge to a small fraction of a percentage point under favorable rules, but the dealer still holds a small advantage in most games, and rule variations can shift it.
One example is the payout for a natural. A blackjack on a 10-unit bet pays 15 units at 3 to 2 but only 12 at 6 to 5. Naturals occur on roughly one hand in twenty, so this seemingly small cut adds a noticeable amount to the house edge over time. The rule variations that affect blackjack have their own article.
Blackjack insurance has a related mislabel. “Even money” offered when you hold a natural against a dealer ace is the same decision as taking insurance, just presented differently, and the offer is discussed separately in blackjack insurance.
Craps and baccarat
The pass line pays one to one, yet its edge is well above zero, since the shooter’s come-out roll and point phase tilt the probabilities slightly against the bettor. The related don’t pass bet pays one to one too and has an edge that is only slightly lower, because a particular roll results in a tie instead of a loss. How that tie works is a good example of push rules. In craps the pass line is covered in more detail in its own article.
In baccarat, bets on the banker usually pay one to one minus a commission, which restores the house’s advantage after the banker hand is made slightly more likely to win. The commission and ties are discussed in the banker bet article.
Why “even” does not mean “fair”
Three ingredients can separate a one-to-one payout from a fair price:
- Extra losing outcomes, such as the zero pocket in roulette.
- Ties handled in the house’s favor, or paid at less than the stake.
- Reduced payouts, such as a commission on wins or a lowered natural payout.
A fair price needs the payout odds to match the probability. When they do not, the shortfall is the edge. Odds conversion between ratios, decimals and percentages makes this easier to see.
Low edge is not no edge
Because even-money bets have a low edge, a player will often see results that look like a fair game over short stretches. Winning streaks and losing streaks on a 50-50-ish bet are normal, and small samples say little about the underlying price. The long-run results still head toward the expected loss as the number of bets grows, which is the law of large numbers at work.
It follows that “safer” is a poor description. The even-money bets are lower in cost per unit and lower in variance than a single-number bet, but they are still expected to lose, and a long enough session can lose any amount. Setting a spare-money budget in advance and stopping at it matters more than the choice of bet. If gambling is causing stress or harm, a local support service can help.