Two Different Questions
Casino games are games of chance with a built-in house edge. No strategy or system changes the odds in the player’s favor over time, and most players lose money over time. Only play with money you can afford to lose.
The house edge answers a question about a game: what share of each unit wagered is the game expected to keep? Hold percentage answers a different question about a venue: of the money that actually came in, how much did it keep? The two are related, but they are measured differently and rarely agree.
What Hold Percentage Means
Hold is the amount a venue keeps divided by some measure of the money that came in. The measure on the bottom of the fraction is the part that varies.
- For table games, the base is often the “drop”, meaning the money players exchange for chips. The amount kept is the win, so hold is win divided by drop.
- For machine games, the base is often the total amount wagered across all spins, sometimes called the handle or coin-in. Hold is the amount kept divided by that total.
Different venues and reports use different definitions, so a hold figure only makes sense when the base is stated. Comparing a hold calculated one way with another calculated a different way produces nonsense.
Why Hold on Drop Can Look Much Larger Than the Edge
The edge applies to every unit wagered. The drop counts only the money brought to the table. But players typically bet the same money several times: a win is re-bet, and chips are replayed. So the total amount wagered is a multiple of the drop.
A hypothetical example, with made-up numbers:
- A player exchanges 100 units for chips.
- Through many rounds, the player places bets totaling 1,000 units, because chips keep returning to the table and are bet again.
- The game has a 5% edge, so the expected amount kept is 1,000 × 0.05 = 50 units.
Hold on the amount wagered is 50 ÷ 1,000 = 5%, which matches the edge. Hold on the drop is 50 ÷ 100 = 50%, which is ten times bigger. Nothing is inconsistent: they are the same 50 units divided by different bases. The ratio of the two bases, 1,000 to 100, is the number of times the money was turned over.
The more rounds played per unit brought in, the larger the gap between hold on drop and the edge. Speed of play is one of the main drivers of that turnover.
Why Hold Differs From the Theoretical Edge
Even when both are measured on the same base, they can differ for a few reasons.
- Random variation. Over a short period, actual results scatter around the expected value. A venue’s reported win for a single day or week can be well above or below what the edge predicts. The edge is a long-run average, and small samples can mislead.
- Mix of bets. If players favor bets with higher edges, such as side bets, the blended edge is higher than for the main game alone. If they favor lower-edge bets, it is lower.
- Player decisions. In games with choices, such as blackjack, the edge depends on how well players decide, so the real edge differs from the figure that assumes ideal play.
- Rules and promotions. Table limits, rule variations and promotional credits alter the numbers recorded.
- Definitions. What counts as win, what counts as drop, and whether credit play is included can all change the ratio.
Theoretical Win Versus Actual Win
Venues commonly track both an expected result and an actual one. The expected result is based on how much was wagered and the edge, so it is a theoretical figure. The actual result is what was really recorded. The difference between them is mostly variance, not something strange.
For one player on one night, the actual result might be anything from a sizable gain to a sizable loss. Summed over many players and many nights, the actual figure should settle closer to the expected one. That settling is the law of large numbers at work, though it never promises an exact match.
A Caution About Published Figures
Many readers want to know what a given venue or type of game “really keeps”. This article gives no such figures, because numbers vary by place, game, rules and the way they are measured, and a figure quoted without its definition and source is not reliable. What can be said safely is structural: hold is a ratio, the base must be known, and the base changes the answer dramatically.
Hold also matters for reasons beyond the venue’s own accounts. Revenue taxes are often tied to gross gaming win, so the relationship between wagers and win feeds into operator taxation, a topic that varies a great deal between jurisdictions.
What This Means for a Player
For a player, the edge is the useful figure for estimating expected cost, while hold is a venue-level accounting measure. A high hold on drop does not mean a game is a worse deal than a low one; it can simply mean money turned over more times. Neither number predicts a single session, which can end well above or well below the average. The sensible way to treat any casino game is as a paid activity, with a budget made of money that can truly be spared.