Three bets, all with a cost
Baccarat is a game of chance with a built-in house edge. No strategy, system or timing changes the odds in the player’s favor over time, and most players lose money over time. Nobody should gamble money they cannot afford to lose. This article compares the main bets so a reader can understand their relative cost, not to suggest any of them is a way to win. Anyone struggling with gambling can contact a local support service.
The three main bets
At a standard table there are three main wagers on each round:
- Player: wins if the player hand finishes closer to 9. Pays 1 to 1.
- Banker: wins if the banker hand finishes closer to 9. Pays 1 to 1, minus a commission.
- Tie: wins if both hands finish with the same total. Typically pays 8 to 1, and some tables pay 9 to 1.
The names are labels for the two hands. Neither hand is anyone’s “own” hand, and a bettor can back either. Because the hands are drawn under fixed rules, as described in the discussion of baccarat decisions, the choice of bet is the only real decision.
Why the banker hand wins slightly more often
The banker hand is drawn under rules that are, on balance, a little more favorable than the player’s. The banker acts after seeing whether the player drew a third card, and the printed drawing table uses that information. Over a large number of rounds in an eight-deck game, the banker hand wins slightly more often than the player hand.
Approximate long-run frequencies for an eight-deck game are commonly given as:
- Banker wins: about 45.9% of rounds
- Player wins: about 44.6% of rounds
- Ties: about 9.5% of rounds
These add up to 100% within rounding (45.86 + 44.62 + 9.52). They are long-run averages from the game’s structure, not predictions of the next round.
The commission
Since the banker bet wins slightly more often, paying it at a full 1 to 1 would give the bettor an advantage. Casinos handle that with a commission on winning banker bets, typically 5%.
A hypothetical example: a bettor wagers $100 on the banker and wins. The commission is 5% of $100, which is $5. The bettor receives $95 in profit and keeps the $100 stake. The same $100 on the player hand that wins gains the full $100.
Commission is usually tracked and collected rather than deducted every hand, depending on the table. Variants exist where no commission is taken but the banker bet pays less in a specific situation, which changes the arithmetic of the bet. The posted rules at the table are what count.
House edge of each bet
With eight decks and the standard 5% commission, the commonly cited house edges are:
- Banker: about 1.06% of the amount wagered
- Player: about 1.24% of the amount wagered
- Tie (8 to 1): about 14.4% of the amount wagered
The commission is what keeps the banker bet from favoring the player. It is a smaller cost than the player bet, but still a cost. In plain terms, over a large amount wagered, the average loss on the banker bet is around $1.06 per $100 and on the player bet around $1.24 per $100. That is the expected cost and not a prediction for any session. The figures can differ with deck counts and rule changes, as discussed in the material on house edge.
Why the tie bet costs far more
The tie happens a bit less than one round in ten, but pays only 8 to 1. A bet that wins roughly 9.5% of the time would be fairly priced at roughly 9.5 to 1 against, which is noticeably more than 8 to 1. The shortfall in the payout is the casino’s margin, and it is much larger than on the other two bets. Where a table pays 9 to 1 the edge is smaller but still higher than the main hand bets.
Ties also matter for the other two bets. When a tie occurs, bets on player and banker are normally returned rather than lost, a standard feature of push rules. That is why ties do not add to the cost of the main hands directly.
Side bets
Many tables offer additional wagers, such as bets on pairs or on certain hand totals. These typically carry much higher edges than the main bets, as explained in the article on side bets. Their appeal is the larger payouts, but the price is the larger average loss.
Reading the comparison correctly
A lower house edge does not mean a bettor will win. The banker bet is the lowest-cost of the three, but it still loses on average, and an individual session can go any direction. Differences of a fraction of a percentage point are also easily swamped by variance in short sessions.
The bet is also not related to previous results. Seeing the banker win several times in a row does not make the player hand more likely next. Each round is an independent event.
For a sensible approach, think of the edge as a price. Choose a stake that fits a budget of spare money, keep an eye on the hourly cost given how fast rounds move, and stop when the limit is reached rather than trying to win back losses.